ForumTouchy Subjects ► The plausability of COVID19 being man-made
This thread has been branched to get back on topic --Blake


Here's the place to discuss how COVID-19 has impacted you. As of today:

  • WHO has declared a pandemic.
  • Travel ban from Europe on foreign nationals will go into place on Friday.
  • Canada may shut down the border between them and the USA.
  • All of Italy is locked down on quarantine. All businesses are closed except for those related to food/medicine. Mortgage payments are canceled.
  • Colleges/Universities have moved fully online in most of the US.


My workplace is moving to only have a skeleton crew in the physical office as of next week. We'll only have two people to receive deliveries on a rotating schedule. I'm pretty worried about my grandparents, and even my parents. I have a few friends who are on immunosuppressants. The subways are practically ghost towns - I was able to SIT during rush hour today.

Me and one of my friends are considering renting a cabin in upstate New York next week just to get away from Manhattan and the COVID-19 breeding ground we've got going on here (and partially just because it would be fun, admittedly).

How about you all?
  
I don't understand why the US has singled out Europe. I heard it's quite bad in Asia.
  
I'm a casually employed school teacher who has a month-long holiday to Europe booked for April/May 🙃🙃🙃🙃

Just learned my flights can be postponed without any fees at least, but still waiting to hear the fate of my tour. If I cancel it now I won't get any money back.

Oh and if schools get shut down in my country, which the PM has mentioned is a possibility, I will have no income.

I feel very self-absorbed having these issues when there are people dying and suffering but it so genuinely sucks, just not as bad as it sucks for some other people.
  
Millpond said:
I don't understand why the US has singled out Europe. I heard it's quite bad in Asia.
This is mostly stereotyping, this is a much bigger problem in Europe than Asia right now. An Italian is literally 1000x more likely to have COVID19 than a Chinese person right now, and it's spreading faster in Italy. China does have the most active cases, but they have over a billion people and the spread of the disease seems to have been pretty well locked down.

Japan has fewer cases than Spain or France or Germany or Switzerland or Norway. No other East Asian country has significant numbers of cases yet. South Korea and China already have a travel ban as well (which is extended).

What I don't get about singling out Europe is that the disease is already here, spreading among Americans. I'm not sure what preventing mostly healthy European travelers does to help us fight the disease at home.
  
It's to lower the chances of faster infection, I think.
The point is to slow it down as much as possible. Isolating ourselves until this blows over seems like the best plan.
Also, in two weeks, those people might not be healthy anymore, and then we just let more virus in.
  
I'm in Seattle, and we've been directed (by employer, not by government) to work from home for the indefinite future.

Public schools have been closed for at least two weeks, and public gatherings of over 250 people have been banned.
  
This article singles out China, Italy, Iran, South Korea as the most affected countries - 3/4 in Asia. It also says the US has already banned entry from China and Iran, so singling out "Europe" (Schengen) makes a bit more sense. I recall China now, but don't recall Iran.

The rationale behind banning entry is to stop more of the virus coming in. It isn't claiming to alleviate the virus already there.

It annoys me how there's a casual narrative in the media about "working from home". It seems to presume a certain kind of tech-heavy white-collar job where that's possible. Oh let's just work from home, why didn't we think of that say people who work in shops, bars, factories, outdoors, etc.
  
EDIT: First and foremost, this article is great.

Again, with regards to China, about 1 in 7 people on Earth are Chinese. Them having a high number of cases isn't comparable to a small country like Italy having a lot of cases. The WHO situation report from yesterday clearly shows how significant the outbreak is in Europe.

This graph is pretty clear about where the problem is growing fastest.

Additionally, the numbers you're looking at are all time numbers despite the fact that tons of cases in Southeast Asia have already resolved because they've been dealing with the disease longer. That's not representative of current cases. Also, more of China's cases are known because of this time delay. Estimates say France probably has 90% of its cases undetected right now, same for lots of areas in the US and Europe.

Italy's first confirmed local transmission wasn't until February 14, less than a month ago. China has had spread since last year. Yet Italy already has more significant all-time infection rates :

China, 1 in 9,700.
South Korea, 1 in 6,600.
In Italy 1 in 6,000.

China is doing a much better job of containing it than Italy, and the jury is out for the rest of Europe. Iran has had a travel ban since last month.
  
I like to eat
  
Rumor has it that NYC will be essentially shutting down this weekend. No non-emergency vehicles on roads, metro north shut down, and limited subway service.
  
I live up north and I am just waiting for everyone to break down and kill each other at the grocery store.
  
POTUS has declared the United States is now in a state of emergency.

Too little, too late in my opinion.
  
Kylljoy said:
POTUS has declared the United States is now in a state of emergency.

Too little, too late in my opinion.


reminds me of Obama during h1n1
  
reminds me of Obama during h1n1


That wasn't nearly as big of an issue though.
  
Welp. My friend who I went grocery shopping with and foolishly shared a waffle with on Saturday almost certainly has COVID-19. She went to the ER, and while they didn't have a test available for her, she says the doctor said it was highly likely. So I guess I'm officially quarantined.
  
I hope both of you guys keep good health, ill or not.
Was the waffle good, at least?
  
The waffle was *exceptional*. Photo!
  
That's not a waffle, that's an "installation"!
  
Until a few days ago this wasn't very serious. In fact, a week ago New Zealand had under five cases. Because our trajectory is looking like Italy's, they've put the entire country on lockdown for four weeks. I basically bolted to a beach retreat with my daughter and lady friend and am waiting for this all to blow over.
  
The thing with epidemics is if they exist, they are serious, even when they don't seem serious. The best case scenario about an epidemic is it kills people too fast to spread, which is like... still really scary and bad.

If you have a single undocumented, unquarantined case of this in your country/province/city, it's over. The only ways to respond:

1) accepting that your healthcare system is going to face collapse and businesses will be shuttered from the austerity economics of fear

2) shut everything down in a controlled way, hope that you can forcibly quarantine the virus until it can't spread anymore and keep new cases out of your territory.

Every US state and major city should have been enforcing lock-ins the second this virus hit a region, just like China should have initially and eventually did successfully do with Wuhan.
  
One thing I haven't seen any discussion of is the death toll due to the economic disruption. I doubt it will be as high as the virus deaths, but I would still like to see some numbers.

As to waiting it out - I don't think that is likely to work. The figures I saw were that Covid-19 had an R-value (average transmissions per case) of 2.8. Until that figure drops below 1, the virus will continue to spread. All the social distancing can do is delay the transmission, not reduce eventual number of cases.

The last I heard was that a vaccine was 2 years away. That means the only way to reduce the R-value is by herd immunity. To do that, you need around 75% of the population to get it, even assuming a 100% immune response. The current strategies will act to spread the load on the health services, and that may well save a lot of lives, but the pandemic won't be over until the vast majority of us have had it.

Some countries like Singapore have had reasonable success with tracking and isolating every contact and every case. The trouble is, unless they completely close off movement into the country until they can vaccinate everyone, they will be in a continual state of siege. Given that Singapore makes its living as an international trade hub, I can't see them succeeding.

We have been fortunate this time around that the death rate is so low (estimated at around 1% taking into account the unreported cases). That will effectively double the normal death rate over the next 2 years. It could have been far worse. For comparison, the Black death is believed to have killed over 50% on the first pass and around 20% in subsequent pandemics. Ebola has a death rate of about 65-70%

Take some comfort: for the majority here the risk is lower - most of the deaths are in the 60+ age group.
  
Working from home for the foreseeable future. Australia (especially Victoria) is increasingly on lock down. I am quite likely to lose my job too because the demand for professional services has completely dried up. Husband will likely retain his job so we can just about cover the mortgage but everything is else is up in the air.
  
And even then- Michigan declared a state of emergency with the first case, closed schools and all that, and we still are up to 1,200 cases two weeks later.
The correct level of action is going to seem like a gross overreaction, based on the delayed nature of the effects.
  
Nah. Any delay is good delay from the point of getting the most out of the health system. The real test will come if they ease off the restrictions too early.
  
One death, 235 infected here in Minnesota. Schools are all closed around my area. As of 5 hours ago, 123,624 people in Minnesota are filing for unemployment benefits. Thankfully my parents are fine with work as they can work from home. My grandparents, however, are right in the risk zone for COVID, and both of them live in China.
  
Forum > Touchy Subjects > The plausability of COVID19 being man-made